Alongside AI, a second major theme at Hacker Summer Camp was geopolitics. At the center of attention was the role of cyber in modern conflicts. I attended several talks on this topic and in this article I share my key impressions from sessions such as ‘Ask the Fed’ (BSidesLV) and ‘AI Empowered Warplanning’ (DEF CON).

China, Typhoon Groups and Hidden Traps

Discussions focused on Chinese groups such as “Volt Typhoon” and “Salt Typhoon”. Volt Typhoon is known for planting booby traps in critical infrastructure that could be activated in times of crisis. Salt Typhoon, on the other hand, focuses more on stealthy espionage. The unsettling part: we only know about the traps that have already been uncovered.”.

Escalation in the Digital Space

Conflicts often unfold in spirals of escalation. Cyber provides attackers with new options:

• Reversibility: Attacks can be rolled back or concealed.
• Flexibility: Attacks can be finely tuned and politically controlled.

This combination makes cyber operations a tool with wide latitude for projecting power.

Cyberwar: Hard to Define

There is no clear definition of cyberwar. Attacks that do not cross a defined threshold often remain unanswered. A key takeaway was that in response to aggression, ‘no decision is also a decision

The US Philosophy: Cold War in the Digital Age

The US response philosophy still stems from the Cold War:

• Punishment: retaliate against attackers
• Deterrence: discourage future attacks
• Resilience: demonstrate that attacks have no lasting impact

But the world has changed. Back then it was only about Russia, today it is also about China and many other actors. Social media and global information flows have made credibility much harder to maintain. As a result, resilience is now seen as a central strategy: systems must continue running even under attack.

Doctrines and China

The Chinese doctrine does not define immediate actions but rather long-term goals such as “By year X we want to be ready.” This highlights China’s long-term, strategic approach: less about immediate actions, more about preparing the ground for future capability

AI Empowered Warplanning

Another fascinating talk demonstrated how artificial intelligence can be used in military planning.

• AI can support both Operational Plans (concrete missions) and Concept Plans (strategic scenarios).
• It helps test feasibility (e.g. resource availability) and acceptance of plans.
• With Indications & Warnings (I&W) it can identify early warning signals for threats or attacks.

However, LLMs also carry risks. Since much of their knowledge comes from sources like Reddit (“come at me bro”), models can sometimes jump to drastic or unrealistic conclusions. That is why AI should be used where it truly provides value, such as in simulation and data analysis.

Cyber and Taiwan: Limited Influence

One important takeaway: cyber operations alone would hardly determine the outcome of a potential Chinese takeover of Taiwan. Geopolitical realities remain decisive. Cyber can complement traditional instruments of power, but it cannot replace them.”

Conclusion Episode 2

Cyber is a powerful tool but not a replacement for traditional instruments of warfare. Attribution remains the biggest challenge. Resilience is the strongest response strategy. AI can provide valuable support in planning, but it must not be used uncritically. Geopolitics sets the grand strategy, while cyber acts as an accelerator.